A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
